Tod von Sinwar schwerer Schlag für Iran

Nun ist es quasi offiziell: Der Mastermind hinter dem 7.10 und Hamas-Chef Yahya Sinwar ist heute von israelischen Soldaten getötet worden.  Mit ihm tritt ein ganz besonders übler Zeitgenosse ab, der, dies nur zur Erinnerung, gegenüber seinem Gefängniszahnarzt, als er noch hinter Gittern saß und bevor er im Rahmen eins Gefangenaustauschs frei kam auf die Frage, ob 10.000 tote Kinder in Gaza ein Krieg gegen Israel wert seien, antwortete: "Even 100,000 Is Worth It"

Für den Iran und die von ihm angeführte "Achse des Widerstandes" dagegen ist der Tod Sinwars ein weiterer schwerer Schlag, wie Seth J. Franzmann in der Jpost ausführt:

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is a serious blow to Iran and its “axis of resistance” in the region. The Islamic Republic has backed Hamas for many years. When Sinwar took charge, it was a major game-changer for Iran. Under Sinwar’s leadership and guidance over the past decade, Hamas has become a major terrorist group that carried out the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.

Iran invested heavily in Sinwar’s Hamas. It helped it with long-range rocket technology and also encouraged it to develop drones and other new technology. The Gaza-based terrorist group also studied Israel carefully and likely had some Iranian guidance in this respect.

Hamas became a massive danger by 2023, much worse than it was back in the Second Intifada (2000-2005). This was a combination of Iranian backing and Sinwar’s dedication. With backing from Turkey, Qatar and Russia, Hamas felt that October 7 could change the region.

Iran worked with Hamas to knit it into its multi-front war on Israel. It wanted to have Hamas coordinate with Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iran would bring the Iraqi militias back to help against the Jewish state. This was a multi-front war that Tehran wanted to launch to sap Israel of its technological capabilities.

Sinwar pushed for this war to happen sooner. He innovated with the Great March of Return and other antics on the Gaza border. With Iranian backing, he launched the 2021 ten-day war. He and Iran learned a lot from this. What followed were meetings in Lebanon and talks about how to accelerate coordination.

Zwar steht zu vermuten, dass die militärisch extrem geschwächte Hamas diesen Verlust kaum wird ungeschadet verkraften können, allerdings sollte man, so ein israelischer Sicherheitsberater, sie nicht unterschätzen:

“We’ve seen with Hezbollah that even after the assassination of its entire leadership, the organization didn’t collapse. This is partly because the command is distributed across smaller units that keep functioning, and also due to the strong ideological and religious fervor that drives these organizations.”

He further elaborated on the regional context, stating: “It’s very difficult to predict how things will unfold. It also ties into what’s happening in the north, with Hezbollah distancing itself from Gaza and showing a willingness for a ceasefire independent of the Strip. This isolates Hamas further. At the same time, pressure is mounting on the Houthis and Iran. It looks like this will be a decisive year.” Avivi concluded: “If Sinwar is dead, it would deal a severe blow to Hamas and could potentially open the door to a hostage deal or signal the beginning of the group’s disintegration.”