Rebellen hatten für langen Krieg in Syrien geplant

Auch die Milizionäre, die mit oder für HTS kämpften waren überrascht, wie schnell am Ende alles ging und dass es keine zwei Wochen dauerte, bis Damaskus quasi ohne einen Schusswechsel fiel.

Sie hatten diese Offensive lange geplant und in Idlib trainiert, aber eben auch mit einem viel längeren Zeitraum gerechnet, wie einer der Kommandeure dem Guardian in einem aufschlussreichen Interview erzählte:

The offensive’s planners had estimated that the battle for Aleppo would take six months, and the campaign would take two years to reach Damascus, the commander said. Instead, the regime and its allies folded like a house of cards. Aleppo was won in a day, Hama, a few days later, Homs three days after that. The capital, Damascus, fell within the next 24 hours, as exhausted Syrian army conscripts and jaded officers caved in the face of the rebel march south.

Zugleich erklärt der Kommandeur, Abu Obeida, der bevor sie mit HTS eine Allianz eingingen, gegen sie kämpften, was er von einer neuen Regierung erwartet und was passieren kann, sollte die diesen Erwartungen nicht entsprechen:

There are deep concerns that HTS and its allies will impose an illiberal brand of Islamist rule on Syria. The more pressing issue may actually be whether HTS can keep its unlikely alliance of rebel groups together, or whether there will be a return to fighting between them.

Abu Obeida put it bluntly: “If HTS do not deliver on their promises of money and jobs, we will go back to fighting them,” he said.

The commander was just 12 years old when Syria’s Arab spring uprising morphed into civil war; he was 15 when he picked up a gun. His is the second generation of Syrians caught up in war. “Resistance is not a choice. This life was not my choice,” he said.