Gas Deal zwischen Israel und Libanon geplatzt
Mit dem Deal hatte die israelische Regierung aber auch die USA große Hoffnungen verbunden. Nun ist er in letzter Minute wohl geplatzt:
Within less than a week, the optimism that had swept through Jerusalem, Beirut and Washington regarding prospects for completing a deal on the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border has turned into discouraging pessimism. On Oct. 6, Defense Minister Benny Gantz instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare for escalation along Israel’s northern borders, including “defense and offense readiness."
Just like that, with no advance warning, the harbingers of peace turned into drums of war. The reason? Not substantive disagreements between the sides, nor a dramatic change in the terms of the emerging deal, but simple, vulgar Middle Eastern politics.
On the Israeli side, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies are waging a campaign of fear mongering and lies designed to exert political pressure on caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid lest he sign an agreement with Lebanon prior to Israel’s Nov. 1 elections.
On the Lebanese side, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is trying to retain his chokehold on the failed Lebanese economy so that he can take credit for allowing the Lebanese government to reach an agreement with Israel and facilitate the country’s access to the gas riches along its shores, or, alternatively, for serving once again as the country’s defender if war with Israel breaks out.
Until about two weeks ago, Israeli intelligence analysts took a relatively sanguine view of Nasrallah’s intentions, with a senior Israeli security official telling Al-Monitor that the Hezbollah leader does not want war and cannot afford a violent round of fighting that would bring the crippled Lebanese state to its knees. The officials argued that Nasrallah was still traumatized by the war with Israel that his forces conducted in 2006 and which sent him into hiding since then. And now all he wants is to issue threats and reap their rewards.