Wie sähe ein Krieg zwischen Israel und der Hizbollah aus?

Im Norden Israel eskaliert die Lage nach erneuten Angriffen der Hizbollah. Viele im Land fürchten, dass ein weiterer Krieg mit der "Partei Gottes" kurz bevorsteht. Wie dieser aussehen könnte beschriebt Tal Beeri vom Alma Institut, wobei es hier nur um die Folgen für Israel geht. Natürlich wäre ein solcher Krieg auch für die Zivilbevölkerung im Libanon verheerend:

"In the event that an all-out war breaks out, the Israeli front will absorb a volume of fire it has not ever been seen - including what was seen in 2006," Beeri predicts.

"Hezbollah's main firepower is missiles and rockets. In fact, Hezbollah's firepower can target the entire territory of the State of Israel with accurate shooting capability. The area that will mainly be under the large volume of fire is the entire northern area up to Haifa. In this area, the bulk of the fire will be from rockets of various types that are considered short-range. Thus, in the first week or two of the war, it will be almost impossible to lead a normal life," he predicted.

According to the research institute's estimates, Hezbollah has 150,000 mortars, 65,000 rockets with a range of up to 80 km, 5,000 rockets and missiles with a range of 80-200 km, 5,000 missiles with a range of 200 km or more, 2,500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) - and hundreds of advanced missiles, such as anti-aircraft missiles or cruise missiles. Estimates indicate that should war break out, Hezbollah will send several thousand drones and missiles to Israel every day.

"Additionally, the more southern line - Hadera, Netanya and Gush Dan - will be in their sights. For Hezbollah, the Gush Dan area is valuable and they will concentrate their efforts there. Firing into Gush Dan is an image of victory. Firing into this area will be carried out using missiles, some of which are accurate - mainly ballistic missiles, including "Fatah-110" missiles, which can be launched up to 300 km."

"I estimate that they will be launched from the northern region of Lebanon, the Beirut region or the Bekaa region - where Hezbollah's outposts and strategic formations, launch arrays and infrastructure are located. Some of the 'Fatah-110' missiles are very accurate, and each missile carries 500 kg of explosive material - that's the power of a Burkan rocket that can explode in the dense space of Gush Dan."

"Furthermore, in the overall war scenario, I predict that Hezbollah will try to carry out an invasion in the Galilee, although not on the scale of thousands of terrorists as it planned before October 7, but it will definitely try to infiltrate using dozens if not hundreds of operatives - in a targeted area. The Radwan's unit is capable of doing this - they just need to be given instructions and orders," he says.

"In addition to these threats, there is also the threat of suicide drones, which the terrorist organization operates even now - but in an all-out war, its volume and intensity will be more significant."