Spannungen zwischen russischer Regierung und Wagner in Syrien

Foreign Policy über Spannungen in Syrien und die Zukunft der Wagner-Truppe in der Region:

On June 26, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin arrived in Damascus on an unscheduled visit. He reportedly asked the Syrian government not to let Wagner fighters leave the country. A statement from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s office indicated that Wagner’s presence in the country was discussed in “light of recent events.” (In 2017, Evro Polis, a Russian shell company believed to be owned by Wagner and which is sanctioned by the United States and European Union, cut a five-year deal to receive 25 percent of the profits from several oil fields, but locals say Wagner has mixed in with the Russian forces and continued to guard oil facilities.) 

Vershinin, however, seemed equally focused on assuring the Syrian government that Putin was still in charge and useful for Assad’s plans to capture Idlib—the last rebel-held enclave bordering Turkey. As if to prove the point, Russian jets pounded a city in Idlib province, killing at least nine people, on June 25, a day after Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko mediated a deal between the Russian president and Prigozhin, bringing an end to the Russian crisis in the nick of time—Wagner troops were in 120 miles of Moscow. 

According to multiple sources on the ground in Syria, however, there were no obvious signs of an uprising in or near Russian bases, reflecting that either Prigozhin hadn’t thought through how he would deal with the international ramifications of his audacious move or it was all planned to a T. Either way, Russian experts who follow Russia’s policy in the Middle East believe that Wagner’s operations will continue, perhaps under a different name and different leadership.

Denis Mirgorod, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, said that while it was too soon to draw clear conclusions about Wagner’s future, it was “obvious that such a structure, which has accumulated a wealth of experience in providing security services in various countries and regions of the world, cannot be abolished and removed from hot spots, including Syria, Libya, Sudan, [the Central African Republic], and Mali,” he told Foreign Policy.