Atempause in Idlib

Eine Atempause dürfte es nur sein für die Menschen in Idlib. Aber Atempausen zählen, wenn die Alternative Krieg, Massaker und Flucht heißen. Wenig Grund für Optimismus also gibt es nach diesem Istanbul Gipfel. Aber Optimismus und Syrien sind zwei Worte, die sich eh ausschließen:

A Turkish-Russian deal for Syria’s Idlib has revived efforts towards a diplomatic solution to the country’s seven-year war, but analysts say a political settlement is still far off.

Diplomatic activity has picked up since regime ally Russia and rebel backer Turkey last month reached an agreement to stave off a government assault on the last major rebel bastion of Idlib.

The accord has for now stopped the regime’s military advances, after it recaptured swathes of the country with Russian support since 2015 to extend its control to over two-thirds of Syria.

Two areas still escape the government’s reach: a northwestern chunk including Idlib, and a huge region in the northeast controlled by a US-backed Kurdish-led alliance.

“The Idlib deal has opened the way,” opposition spokesman Yahya Al-Aridi said.

“We have noticed a flurry of diplomacy.”

The outgoing United Nations envoy to Syria last week visited Damascus, and the political opposition’s chief negotiator welcomed the opportunity for dialogue with Moscow.

Last week, Syria’s UN envoy Bashar Jaafari set limits to the diplomatic path.

“We will retake Idlib... when we are sure that political and diplomatic action has failed in restoring national sovereignty to this part of our territory,” he said.

And regional expert Lund was not hopeful.

“I don’t think there’s much potential for a political settlement that reintegrates these areas without violence,” he said.