Irak: Auf dem Weg ins unregierbare Chaos?

Im Irak endet das Jahr in Chaos. Trotz verschiedener Anläufe ist es dem Establishment bisher nicht gelungen, einen neuen Kandidaten für das Amt des Premierministers zu nominieren. 

Jeder wurde bislang als unfähig ider dem Iran viel zu nahe stehend von der Protestbewegung abgelehnt. Nun hat auch der Präsident, Berham Saleh, erklärt, sollte nicht in Kürze ein allgemein akzeptierter Kandidat gefunden werden, wolle er seinen Rücktritt einreichen.

Saleh hatte sich bislang nur halbherzig solidarisch mit den Protestierenden erklärt, allerdings mehrfach den Einsatz brutaler Gewalt verurteilt. Sollte auch er aufgeben, droht das Land im Chaos zu versinken.

Ali Mansour entwirft für die absehbare Zukunft des Landes vier mögliche Szenarien:

• In the best-case scenario, the political parties would agree on a figure accepted by different parties who are strong enough to bring all sides together and reach an agreement that reduces conflict and brings Iraq back to a relatively stable situation, allowing the politicians to solve the problems and manage the transitional period calmly. Many are suggesting the name of the chief of the Iraqi Intelligence Service, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who is close to the United States and Iran at the same time and accepted by most Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish political parties. Kadhimi has shown great achievement in heading the Intelligence Service, which recently succeeded, in cooperation with US forces, in an effort to kill Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria.
• One scenario is to select a new prime minister from the Al-Binaa list; it is not clear yet that this would satisfy the protesters or how well the candidate would be able to manage the transitional period.
• Another scenario under discussion is for the prime minister who resigned, Adel Abdul Mahdi, to stay on until early elections are organized. But this could increase the protests, as demonstrators do not see him impartial and accuse him of being involved in the suppression of the protests.
• The worst-case scenario is conflict leading to civil war, which would turn different PMU forces against each other — Sadrist against Iran-backed forces in particular — and involve Iran and the United States as well. It could be a civil war with foreign involvement. A military coup is also possible which would bring more crisis to the country as well. The website of the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (Counterterrorism Service) had published a military coup announcement before but it claimed later that its website had been hacked.