Keine gute Zeit für den Iran in Syrien
In der Jerusalem Post fasst es Seth. J. Frantzman so zusammen, nachdem er aufzählt, welche heftige Versluste der Iran durch israelische Luftangriffe in Syrien zu beklagen hat:
It has become an almost nightly occurrence. Syrian social media watchers await the explosions from airstrikes that are likely to occur. From villages near Deir Ezzor and Al Bukamal, to five hundred kilometers north to the Aleppo countryside and then four hundred kilometers south to Damascus, those watching Syria’s skies have become used to aerial bombardment.
If one sketches an arc of changes from the fall of 2019 to the spring of 2020, there have been rapid setbacks for Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Whatever hegemony it thought it was creating in 2017 and 2019 – sending militias into Kirkuk, helping the Syrian regime retake land and seeking to humiliate the US in Syria while supplying Hezbollah with precision guided munitions – might be in tatters. Its Soleimani replacement, Esmail Ghaani, has offended Iran’s friends in Iraq, Assad is losing friends at home and Hezbollah has been called upon to help in Syria and Iraq when it is nearing bankruptcy at home. In crisis there can be opportunity, but with apparent setbacks for Iran there can also be miscalculation.