Montag, 19.04.2021 / 21:24 Uhr

Israel steht alleine gegen den Iran

Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Es scheint, die schlimmsten Befürchtungen israelischer Politiker bewahrheiten sich: Mit dem Amtsantritt Joe Bidens, dessen Administration erneut ein Atomabkommen mit dem Iran aushandeln will, steht der jüdische Staat weitgehend alleine da.

Alle anderen Länder , egal ob die USA, Europa oder die arabischen Golfstaaten, so Ephraim Asculai, haben inzwischen entschieden, dass sie sich wohl notfalls mit einem nuklear bewaffneten Iran arrangieren könnten. Nur für Israel, dessen Auslöschung als Staatsdoktrin der islamischen Republik festgeschrieben wurde, gilt das nicht:

In these uncertain times, decision-making on the part of Iran’s opponents has become a most difficult task. Basic questions must be put forward and answered. The first one is which country can live with a nuclear Iran? The second is a consequence of the first one: assuming that it cannot live with a nuclear Iran, how far is a country willing to go in countering this situation? Can Israel live with a nuclear Iran, given its continuous threats against it? The answer is that for Israel it will be an unacceptable situation, and it will do all it can to prevent this from happening.

Can the US live with a nuclear Iran? The answer is probably yes, given the Indian, Pakistani and North Korea experiences, notwithstanding its statements to the contrary. It is not happy with these states, but with the exception of diplomatic activities and some economic pressures, not much is being done, or will likely be done, by the present administration despite its unequivocal commitment not to allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

Can the Gulf States live with a nuclear Iran? There is no simple answer to this question. They hate the idea, but cannot do much about it at present. Are they afraid enough to do something about it before Iran has gone beyond a point of no return? Probably not — not without active leadership or at least support from the outside.

The outcome of the above discussion is that Israel, viewing a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, would have to go it alone.