Gazakrieg treibt libanesische Wirtschaft in die Rezession

Die letzten Jahre schon stand es um Libanons Wirtschaft schlecht, Verfall der Lira und eine tiefe Krise führten zu Massenverarmung. 

Ein wenig ging es 2023 trotzdem bergauf. Damit scheint jetzt Schluss zu sein:

Lebanon's economy, which had been on a recovery path after years of turmoil, is projected to be dragged back into a recession as a result of the Israel-Gaza war, the World Bank said.

The country was previously projected to post 0.2 per cent growth in its gross domestic product in 2023, after five years of being in the red, but that is now expected to turn into a contraction of between 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent, the Washington-based lender said in its latest Economic Monitor.

Lebanon shares a border with Israel in the south and is at risk of being dragged into the conflict.

"While the country remains mired in a political and institutional vacuum, and a crippling socio-economic crisis for over four years, it has now been hit by another large shock: fear that the current conflict centred in Gaza could escalate further into Lebanon," the World Bank said.

It said its contraction estimates would hold up if there were no major escalations in border violence between Israel and Hezbollah through the end of 2023.

"A significant escalation of the conflict would also permanently scar Lebanon’s growth potential and carry grave economic implications," the World Bank said.